There’s been growing chatter that weakening air travel signals economic trouble ahead. But when you dig into the TSA data, the story looks quite different.
Here’s why it matters:
Airline travel is one of the clearest forms of discretionary spending — whether for business or leisure. People typically fly because they choose to, not because they have to. That makes it a valuable proxy for economic confidence.
So we took a look.
We analyzed TSA checkpoint data for the first 160 days of each year since 2019.
The result? More people flew in 2025 than in any other year on record over that same period — including the travel boom of 2023 and 2024.
If the U.S. economy is slowing, it hasn’t shown up in this data yet.
Now, none of this guarantees smooth skies ahead. The second half of the year could bring headwinds — from tariffs to tightening credit. But as of today, the current pace of U.S. airline travel simply doesn’t align with the recession narrative.
When in doubt, follow the data — not the headlines.
