Gold is having its strongest year since 1979. The big question now: what happens after the Fed’s recent rate cuts? History offers a useful framework: If a recession follows within 12 months, gold has meaningfully outperformed. If the economy avoids recession, gold has usually underperformed, as investors rotate back into risk assets supported by easier […]
There’s been a lot of discussion recently about the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio, especially after Friday’s reading came in at 0.45—a 10th percentile level. This means traders were buying far more calls than puts, a sign of excessive optimism. As a contrarian indicator, this excites the bears. The logic is simple: when everyone is positioned […]
The latest U.S. Census Bureau data shows building permits at 1.312M—the lowest since the COVID era and the fourth miss in five releases. As a leading indicator for the economy and real estate, this downward trend in permits is raising eyebrows. Why it matters: Declining permits often precede economic weakness and recessions. Historically, sustained drops […]
A friendly reminder: if you’re rooting for rate cuts, you’re also betting there won’t be a recession in the next 12 months. Why does that matter? Because the path of outcomes is very different depending on what follows a rate cut. 🔹 Since 1974, the Fed has cut rates without a recession 5 times. In […]
September has a reputation—and not a great one—for investors. Since 1950, it’s the only month with a negative average return for the S&P 500. On top of that, it holds the lowest probability of finishing positive compared to any other month of the year. So yes, September can be a drag for markets. But let’s […]