On October 29th, 2025, a Hindenburg Omen appeared — one of the market’s most famous (and misunderstood) warning signals.
Often viewed as a harbinger of market doom, the truth is more nuanced.
A single Hindenburg Omen isn’t all that meaningful, but a cluster — typically five or more within a month (my definition) — has historically mattered. Whether we see that cluster develop remains to be seen.
The indicator did flash ahead of several notable market drawdowns, including the Global Financial Crisis, the late-2018 almost bear market, and the COVID crash. But it’s also produced its fair share of false positives, which makes it unreliable as a standalone signal.
That said, when you analyze Hindenburg Omen clusters over the past 35 years, forward returns have been significantly lower than average — making it a signal worth noting as part of any broader market outlook.
