The Q4 2025 U.S. Economic Dashboard highlights a resilient economy amid mixed signals, with real GDP growth accelerating to a 4.3% annual rate, fueled by robust consumer spending, export gains, and government support. Services and new orders showed sustained expansion, while manufacturing continued to contract, reflecting ongoing demand softness and labor challenges. Inflation trends remained […]
Hard to believe, but yes—2026 is already a midterm election year. Feels like we just wrapped up the last cycle, doesn’t it? Regardless of your politics, history shows these years often bring extra volatility and tempered returns to the stock market. Why? Heightened policy uncertainty as Congress gets reshuffled. Looking back since 1949: Midterm years—the […]
Shorting the dollar has been a standout winner of 2025—the USD was down almost 10%, and it’s slipped another ~1.2% just in December. No surprise everyone’s feeling pretty good about it right now. But here’s where seasonality throws a curveball. December has historically been the dollar’s roughest month, averaging about -0.9% (easily the weakest of […]
With 2025 officially in the books, it’s hard not to feel grateful for the remarkable run in U.S. equities. The S&P 500 finished the year up over 15% – marking three consecutive years of 15%+ gains (following strong performances in 2023 and 2024). This kind of streak is truly rare. Since 1950, the S&P 500 […]