The Q4 2025 U.S. Economic Dashboard highlights a resilient economy amid mixed signals, with real GDP growth accelerating to a 4.3% annual rate, fueled by robust consumer spending, export gains, and government support. Services and new orders showed sustained expansion, while manufacturing continued to contract, reflecting ongoing demand softness and labor challenges. Inflation trends remained positive, with core inflation easing to 2.6% year-over-year—the lowest since early 2021—though shelter and other costs persist as pressures. Small business optimism improved modestly, driven by sales expectations, but employment held steady at 4.6% unemployment, with rising part-time work underscoring labor market tightness.
Overall, consumer and housing sentiment weakened further due to high prices and elevated mortgage rates, contributing to broad pessimism near historic lows. Monetary policy outlook remains cautious, with the Fed emphasizing data-dependent rate adjustments and liquidity measures. This dashboard underscores a gradually softening yet stable economic landscape heading into 2026, with two-sided risks from inflation and labor dynamics. For full details, download the PDF below.