Historically, mid-July marks a seasonal peak for the S&P 500. From there, the market typically enters a choppy, rangebound phase that lasts until early November. Since 1970, this pattern has repeated often enough to earn a place in many investors’ playbooks.
But this year? Far from typical.
Back in April, the S&P 500 had one of its worst starts to a year in over five decades—only one other year (2020) saw a steeper drawdown in the first four months. Yet despite that rocky start, we now find ourselves above the average July level.
Whether the rest of the year sticks to the script or not, it’s a reminder that markets often defy patterns—especially when everyone is watching them.
