On October 29th, 2025, a Hindenburg Omen appeared — one of the market’s most famous (and misunderstood) warning signals. Often viewed as a harbinger of market doom, the truth is more nuanced. A single Hindenburg Omen isn’t all that meaningful, but a cluster — typically five or more within a month (my definition) — has […]
Since 1950, the three-month stretch from November through January has been the strongest seasonal period for the S&P 500, with an average return of 4.4% — double the typical three-month average of 2.2%. Seasonality alone isn’t a trading signal, but it’s another data point in the mosaic of quantitative and historical factors that help shape […]
Yesterday was one of those rare market days that makes you stop and take notice. The S&P 500 closed positive on the day — yet market breadth was incredibly weak. How weak? In the past 27 years, there have been only 49 days when the index finished higher but the SPX Daily Advance-Decline Ratio was […]
Unless something dramatic happens in the next few hours, the S&P 500 will close at a new all-time high today — the first since October 8th. One of the most common questions I get from clients is:“Is it a good idea to invest at all-time highs?” The answer: absolutely, yes. So why does it feel […]
That’s the question every gold trader is asking right now. Yesterday, gold fell 5.3%, marking the 10th largest single-day loss since 1990 — and the largest in more than five years. What makes the move even more interesting is where it happened: while gold was above its 200-day moving average — in other words, still […]
Something extraordinary happened on Friday. On Thursday, the S&P 500 hit an intraday all-time high. By Friday’s close, it had dropped 2.7%. This kind of sharp selloff immediately following a record high is rare. Since 1950, there have only been 11 occasions where the S&P 500 hit an all-time high and then fell 2% or […]
The S&P 500 closed Q3 up 7.8%, which is notable considering that Q3 is historically the weakest quarter of the year — averaging just 0.8% since 1950. By comparison, the other three quarters average between 2.1% and 4.2%. Since 1950, there have been 16 instances where the S&P 500 posted a Q3 gain of 7% […]
Bitcoin has officially entered its strongest month of the year — both in terms of average return and consistency of positive performance. Since 2014, October has delivered an average return of 18.2%, and Bitcoin has finished the month positive 83% of the time. That’s more than 3x the average monthly return over the same period. […]
With a +30% surge in the last three months—its best year since 2010—silver is turning heads. Yet, silver remains underinvested relative to gold. For context, the largest gold ETF (GLD) holds over 5x the assets of the largest silver ETF (SLV). But here’s the catch: silver’s strength is tempting investors to chase entries. Before jumping […]
Gold is having its strongest year since 1979. The big question now: what happens after the Fed’s recent rate cuts? History offers a useful framework: If a recession follows within 12 months, gold has meaningfully outperformed. If the economy avoids recession, gold has usually underperformed, as investors rotate back into risk assets supported by easier […]