As of yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 was down 9.1% over just 15 trading sessions—marking the largest three-week drop since the COVID bear market. To put that into perspective, since 1990, this decline ranks in the top 1.5% of market drops over a similar timeframe. No doubt, this level of volatility is tough to stomach. […]
Market performance often follows seasonal patterns—known as seasonality—which, while not a stand-alone strategy, can offer valuable context for investors. Historically, stocks rally after the new year, peak by mid-February, and weaken until mid-March. Then? A sustained move higher. This year, the S&P 500 peaked on February 19 and has been declining since. If history repeats, […]
Last Thursday and Friday, the S&P 500 briefly dipped below its 200-day moving average (DMA)—but failed to close beneath it. Why does this level matter? Because historically, nothing good happens below it. Why the 200-Day Moving Average Matters The 200-DMA is simply the average price over the past 200 trading days. Markets tend to perform […]
A hot topic this weekend has been whether we’re in for a Black Monday-style crash following Friday’s aggressive selloff. For those unfamiliar, Black Monday refers to October 19, 1987, when the S&P 500 plunged over 20% in a single day—still the largest one-day drop in market history. This has fueled the old Wall Street saying: […]
We’ve all heard it: “Just buy an S&P 500 ETF, and you’re set.” There’s no denying that U.S. large caps have dominated for the past decade. But what if I told you that a non-crypto, mainstream, easily investable commodity has actually outperformed the S&P 500—even on a total return basis—over the past three years? The […]
It feels like small-cap stocks can’t catch a break compared to their large-cap counterparts—and recent history seems to agree. Over the past four years, large caps have outperformed small caps every single year. In fact, 2024 was especially striking, with large caps outpacing small caps by a whopping 13.3%—the largest gap since 1998. Looking back […]
With the S&P 500 closing January in the green, a powerful historical precedent was triggered—one known as the January Effect. Made famous by Yale Hirsch in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, this market phenomenon suggests: “As January goes, so goes the rest of the year.” Historically, when January is positive, the full year tends to follow […]
After steadily cooling through 2023 and 2024, inflation—measured by Core PCE—has begun trending higher again. On Friday, Core PCE came in at 2.79% year-over-year, marking the third straight month of elevated levels. While still below its long-term average, rising inflation can create headwinds for risk assets. What is Core PCE? It’s the Federal Reserve’s preferred […]
Earlier this week, the Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index hit yet another all-time high—the 22nd consecutive month of record-breaking prices. This index, which tracks home prices in 20 major U.S. cities, paints a clear picture: homeownership is becoming increasingly unattainable. 13 out of 20 cities in the index are at all-time highs, a discouraging reality […]
2024 was nothing short of extraordinary. The S&P 500 capped off the year with back-to-back 20%+ annual gains, a rare feat in market history. Domestic equities dominated international markets, and growth once again outperformed value in a commanding fashion. Will 2025 mirror last year? Unlikely. Since 1929, there has only been one streak of more […]