On the eve of the 2024 Presidential Election, we reflect on historical trends and insights from our election research, captured in four charts. Navigating Market Anxiety Ahead of the Presidential Election Market reaction to elections are often unpredictable, and trying to time your investments around them can be a risky strategy. In fact, since 1928, […]
While the market often attempts to predict election outcomes, the party that wins the White House has historically had less impact on long-term wealth accumulation than many might think. The chart below illustrates what happens when we invest $10,000 on November 1st of each election year since 1948 and hold it for ten years. In […]
The chart below provides a powerful reminder of the stock market’s phenomenal growth since the 1920s, regardless of which party holds office. If you had gone to cash or adjusted your investment strategy based on political biases, you would have missed out on some incredible periods of market growth. As we often say: your time […]
It’s common for investors to link their views on the stock market’s future to how much they like—or align with—a particular president. However, the data suggests otherwise. When we break down presidencies based on their average Gallup approval ratings, an interesting pattern emerges: the four most popular presidents saw average annualized stock market returns of […]
With just three weeks to go until the presidential election, it’s natural to see heightened concerns among clients and advisors. Many wonder if they should pull out of the market, fearing potential volatility or negative outcomes. But history shows us a different perspective. Market reactions to elections are often unpredictable, and trying to time your […]
Irritable Powell Syndrome After months of speculation, Fed chair Jerome Powell and the FOMC cut rates 50 basis points and indicated that more easing was to come. This was widely cheered by many who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy a house thinking the cut by the Fed would reduce mortgages rates. […]
Yesterday, I discussed how 10-Year Treasury yields respond to the initial rate cut in a Fed easing cycle and its impact on consumers. Today, let’s take a deeper look at the connection between 10-year yields and 30-year mortgage rates following the beginning of a Fed easing cycle. Historically, the median change in longer-duration Treasury yields […]
When the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by fifty basis points last week, the bond market took notice. While many believe that the start of an easing cycle can signal a decline in yields across the board, it’s important to remember that not all bonds respond the same way. The short end of the yield […]
Today, the FOMC took a decisive step by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. While market predictions were leaning in this direction, most major banks had only anticipated a 25 basis point cut, making the actual decision somewhat more aggressive. Initial market reactions were mixed as participants digested the news, but ultimately, we saw […]
Investors and speculators alike are increasingly turning their attention to gold—and for good reason. Over the past two years, gold has surged by over 40%, outperforming even the S&P 500. Often viewed as both an inflation hedge and a safe haven during geopolitical uncertainty, gold continues to make it’s case for inclusion in investor’s portfolios. […]