This morning, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released their latest Small Business Optimism Index results, showing a rise of over 2 points to 93.7—surpassing consensus expectations and marking the highest level since February 2022. Small businesses are the backbone of job creation in the United States and are vital to our overall economy. […]
As the volatility of the week starts to shake out, it is important to focus on empirical data versus emotions. The question on everyone’s mind is whether this was a routine pullback or the start of something more concerning. While no single indicator can provide a definitive answer, it’s essential to take a mosaic approach […]
Yesterday, we witnessed a historical spike in the VIX, often referred to as the “Fear Gauge.” This index, which measures market expectations of near-term volatility in the S&P 500, recorded its second-largest one-day percentage increase in history. The only day with a larger spike since the index’s inception was February 5, 2018, when the S&P […]
Today, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices revealed significant insights into the U.S. housing market, tracking the selling prices of single-family homes across 20 metropolitan areas and providing a national perspective to investors. These indices are crucial as they reflect the trends in one of the most significant assets for many Americans—their homes. The direction of […]
Yesterday, growth stocks experienced a significant setback, with the Russell 1000 Growth Index ending the day down 3.8%. This marks the largest one-day drop for the index since September 2022. To illustrate how unusual this decline is, there have only been 67 trading days since 1991 where the index lost as much as it did […]
Last week, I shared how re-election years often yield strong stock market returns in the presidential cycle. However, recent developments with President Biden withdrawing from the race have raised questions about whether this still qualifies as a re-election year. While that debate is for others to decide, let’s explore how election years affect the stock […]
Historically, presidential election years often provide muted returns for investors due to uncertainty, leading to potential market volatility. However, not all election years are the same. A significant distinction exists between election years when the president is not up for re-election (lame duck) and when they are. 2024 is a re-election year (potentially a nontraditional […]
In the past few days, there’s been significant discussion about the rotation from large-cap equities to small-cap stocks. The move has been impressive – small caps have outperformed large caps by over 10% in just six days. But is this enough to break free from the prolonged underperformance that small caps have experienced since early […]
Small cap stocks have been on quite a tear the last few days, with the Russell 2000 marking its best 5-day run of performance since the first half of 2020. As an investor, buying into strength can be challenging, especially exceptional strength. However, history shows that strong performances in small caps often lead to continued […]
As we close out the first half of 2024, uncertainties abound. Will we finally see the recession that has been talked about for the past two years? Will the election throw the stock market into chaos? There’s certainly a wall of worry that the market will have to climb in the second half of 2024. […]